Do I need to scramble? Really, Do I?
You can only tell for sure on March 17th.
Here are some signs that should make you think about the Scramble seriously:
• Less than 80 potential positions. You should add numbers of Program Match Quota positions for each program you interviewed with. You can find program quotas on the NRMP web site (you must be logged on) after February 27. In the meantime you can find last years' quotas at Unfilled Positions 2002-2007
• Average or weak feedback from the programs after the interviews
• Programs that you interviewed with offer prematches
• Programs that you interviewed with are rarely hiring IMGs.
You can find out if a program offered prematches as well as its IMG Friendliness at the following link: Unfilled Positions 2002-2007
Since you cannot ever tell for sure, you may want to prepare for the Scramble anyway. If you don't have to, great, otherwise you come well equipped.