What are my chances in the scramble if I do not match?

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What are my chances in the scramble if I do not match?

There is no precise formula to calculate one’s chances. But in general, if you participated in the Match and submitted your ERAS application before October 2007, your Scramble chances are 1/4 of your chances in the Match. This estimate is based strictly on a number of applicants per available position in Match and Scramble.

Let's look at the number of applicants per position ratios

2007 Match/Scramble numbers

Available residency positions 21,845

US Senior Applicants 15,206

IMG Applicants 15,112

Unfilled positions for the Scramble 1,331

Scrambling US Seniors 514

Unfilled positions left for IMGs 817

Scrambling IMGs 7,468

Averaged out IMG's odds in the scramble 11%


Simple math:

Match - 29,000 / 22,000 = 1.31 applicants/position

Scramble - 9,000 / 1,600 = 5.625 applicants/position

Scramble chances are lower than Match - 5.625/1.31= 4.3 times

These numbers do not account for additional applicants that did not participate in the match, so reality is even tougher. Conclusion - if you applied for the Match early and did not get interviews, or got too few, you have to analyze what went wrong. This is the key. Otherwise your Scramble experience will be very frustrating.

Even though it does not sound encouraging, do not give up. There is no chance if you do not participate.